Jacksonville’s drought persists as warmer temperatures return, bringing water conservation requests and higher fire risk

Dry pattern continues across Northeast Florida

Jacksonville is entering another warm stretch with limited rain expected, extending a drought that has built over recent months across Northeast Florida. Regional conditions have been shaped by a persistent rainfall deficit and seasonal dry-weather climatology, with winter typically bringing lower precipitation across the St. Johns River Water Management District’s coverage area.

The water management district has reported that dry conditions continued through December 2025, with precipitation below normal in 17 of its 18 counties. Districtwide rainfall averaged 1.63 inches for the month—0.91 inches below the monthly average—while the broader 2025 total across the district was about five inches below the long-term average. The agency has also noted declining aquifer levels in parts of the district amid the continuing deficit.

Water shortage declaration for Duval County and nearby areas

In early February, the St. Johns River Water Management District declared a Phase I (moderate) water shortage affecting Duval County and portions of Alachua, Baker, Bradford and Marion counties. The declaration is designed as a temporary, precautionary step when dry conditions begin to strain water resources.

The current phase does not impose new mandatory limits beyond existing seasonal rules, but it asks residents, businesses and institutions to reduce “wasteful and unnecessary” water use and to conserve as much as possible. The district has indicated that additional restrictions are possible if conditions worsen.

• The voluntary reduction request applies broadly, including public supply, commercial and industrial users, institutions, agriculture, landscaping, recreation and aesthetic water uses.

• Existing winter irrigation rules remain in effect in the district: homes with odd-numbered or no addresses are scheduled to water on Saturdays, even-numbered addresses on Sundays, and nonresidential properties on Tuesdays, with limits on run time and application amounts.

What the week’s weather pattern means for drought and wildfire risk

Forecasts for the Jacksonville area indicate warm afternoons generally in the 70s with cooler nights, while high pressure is expected to keep conditions mostly dry. While a late-week system could produce a few showers, projected rainfall is limited and not expected to materially reduce drought impacts.

With vegetation stressed by prolonged dryness, the combination of warm temperatures, low humidity and occasional breezes can elevate the risk of brush fires. Local fire activity has already been reported in the region during the current dry spell, underscoring the need for prevention measures during outdoor work and recreation.

Drought conditions can intensify quickly during Northeast Florida’s dry season when rain is scarce and warmer weather increases evaporation and water demand.

Key indicators to watch

Officials typically assess drought severity using several measures, including rainfall totals over recent months, groundwater monitoring percentiles, surface water flows and drought classification maps. The district’s recent reporting highlights both the breadth of the precipitation deficit and pressure on groundwater levels—two signals that often guide whether a voluntary shortage progresses to more restrictive phases.

For Jacksonville-area residents, the practical outlook for the week is continued dry weather, ongoing requests to conserve water, and heightened attention to wildfire safety until a sustained wetter pattern returns.